Epidemic Analysis of Covid-19 in Brazil by generalized SEIR model

Authors

  • Mariana Pinheiro Gomes da Silva Federal University of Bahia image/svg+xml
  • Juarez dos Santos Azevedo Federal University of Bahia image/svg+xml
  • Suzete Maria Silva Afonso Universidade do Estado de São Paulo

Keywords:

Epidemic model, COVID-19, SEIR model, Analysis in Brazil

Abstract

We shall apply a generalized SEIR model to study the outbreak of COVID-19 in Brazil. In particular, we would like to explain the projections of the increase in the level of infection over a long period of time, overlapping large local outbreaks in the most populous states in the country. A time-dependent dynamic SEIR model inspired in a model previously used during the outbreak in China was used to analyses the time trajectories of infected, recovered, and deaths. The model has parameters that vary with time and are fitted considering a nonlinear least-squares method. The simulations starting from April 8, 2020, concluded that the time for a peak in Brazil will be in July 21, 2020 with total cumulative infected cases around 982K people; in addition, an estimated total death case will reach to 192K in the end. Besides that, Brazil will reach a peak in terms of daily new infected cases and death cases around the middle of July with 50K cases of infected and almost 6.0K daily deaths.

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Author Biographies

  • Juarez dos Santos Azevedo, Federal University of Bahia

    Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA). Instituto de Ciências, Tecnologia e Inovação, Centro, 42802-721, Camaçari-BA, Brasil. He holds a degree in Mathematics from the State University of Feira de Santana (2001), a Masters in Mathematics from the Federal University of Bahia (2003) and a PhD in Applied Geophysics from the Federal University of Bahia (2004-2009). He has experience in Probability and Statistics and Numerical Analysis with emphasis on Finite Elements, working mainly on the following topic: Finite Element Method with uncertainty parameters.

  • Suzete Maria Silva Afonso, Universidade do Estado de São Paulo

    Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Instituto de Geociências e Ciências Exatas, 13506-900, Rio Claro-SP, Brasil. She has Mathematics Graduation in Universidade Federal Fluminense (2007), Master in Mathematics from Universidade Federal Fluminense (2008), Ph. ) and is a full professor at the Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho 2019). She is currently an Associate Professor at the Universidade Estadual Paulista "Júlio de Mesquita Filho", Campus of Rio Claro, together with the Department of Mathematics. In addition, she is the coordinator of the Graduate Program in Mathematics at IGCE-UNESP-R.

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Published

2023-04-25

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023): RECET

Section

Applied Mathematic

Categories

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How to Cite

Epidemic Analysis of Covid-19 in Brazil by generalized SEIR model. Electronic Journal of Exact and Technological Sciences, v. 4, n. 1, 25 Apr.2023.

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